What is the probability of winning a second nobel prize?

The basic probability of winning a nobel prize is one in several billion. A prize winner once said the probability of winning a second one is one in several hundred (the rough amount of those who have won a nobel prize in the past). Was he just joking, or is there merit to his claim?|||It hardly makes sense to calculate the probability, since, for one thing, it's not a random event. The prizes are awarded by committees based on achievements. It's not the lottery.





It happens very rarely.





Linus Pauling won in Chemistry and later in Peace.





I don't know of any other double winners, but it would be easily checked.


There is a website (nobel.org ?) which lists all the winners.





The chances of winning twice in the sciences would be


very slim indeed, simply because the prizes are awarded


for major breakthroughs in research, and these often take


many years to achieve. It would be very difficult to accomplish


that twice in one lifetime.





And even if there were such a case, the committees


would probably not award a second prize, figuring that they


are rare enough that they should be "spread around".


They don't have a shortage of candidates.|||John Bardeen also won the Nobel Prize twice.

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